Everitt’s law

If you read earlier posts on here, in particular those entitled “those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it” or the one about Apple & RIM repeating Apple history, Google repeating Linux history and Microsoft on track to follow their history, then you know I have a view, that I am going to call “Everitt’s law”

Everitt’s law states :
The largest computing (PC, Tablet or Phone) market share will be taken by the platform that provides the broadest choice of hardware vendors that are compatible for the business users killer Application.

Once upon a time it was Outlook on RIM (before it was a phone, sustained by becoming a phone), then it became entertainment (mainly music) on iOS, then maps and search on Android … None of these are killer Applications, but are certainly valued applications.

The business killer Application is the integration of spreadsheets, documents and presentations. There are only really three remaining options in this arena now, Microsoft Office, OpenOffice/StarOffice and Google Docs.

As is often the case, when the geeks get to develop products they never finish. In the case of Open/StarOffice its limping now that Oracle/Sun are no longer containing its development. Google Docs looks like a University research project. Try capturing Excel data and building a graph and then importing it into the presentation tool, its OK if your a geek. Finding your contacts or calendar from the email tool is even a challenge. The only tool that has that ease of use feel is the Microsoft Office suite, pity really.

I therefore suggest that Microsoft Office on mobile with Office 365 cloud support for SharePoint and Lync built on Skype is a killer combination for the business user. The business user will only carry one mobile phone and one tablet, I suspect it will be tightly coupled to Office.

A number of large businesses are asking “why do I own my own postoffice”? They realise that they have a huge overhead running a messaging and collaboration solution that, like the postoffice, could be outsourced. The bandwidth in the interconnection is such that utility computing is not far away, and with that putting corporate quality tools into a hosted environment is a natural step. Office 365 is public cloud, try it, you will be amazed.

In concusion, who really cares about the OS? The users did not really care whether it was DSO, Windoww 3, Windows 95, Windows 98, Windows ME, Windows NT, Windows XP, Windows Vista, Windows 7,what they cared about was whether it would run their Application regardless of hardware vendor. In fact Microsoft did get it wrong a number of times with platforms 95, ME and Vista the users simply waited for the next one and then moved. Why?, well they simply needed a dependable platform to run that killer Application.

Microsoft have 18 months if we are on the same timeline as the Apple to IBM timeline of the past. If they can get Office on Windows mobile tightly coupled with cloud and tablets then Office will continue to be the killer App. Its certainly not entertainment, messaging or maps and search.

To recap, to win in the computing arena all of the following need to be present:

  1. A stable OS running on multiple hardware vendor platforms (ie. Samsung, HTC, Nokia)
  2. An application that is uniquely coupled with #1 and is business critical

History was Lotus 123 on IBM PCDOS that was compatible with MSDOS and the clones. I propose this time its Office & Office 365 on Windows Phone. Of course, Google, if they wake up, could invest heavily in Google Docs to get it to corporate grade and as they have #1 could lock in with #2 and in the process win significant support as an alternative to Office … but they need marketing to offset their geeks … pity, but I do not see it happening in time.

Its about the App, not the OS and not the hardware.

The end of an x86 era, its over for the PC

A recent article has made it even clearer to me that the days of the PC, whether desktop or laptop, are numberd.

As many people that know me well will recall I predicted the end of the x86 PC as a primary tool in 2007.
At the time I had been given AMD Live as a Market Engagement Strategy to run with in Europe, a strategy that could have worked if the leadership team had also realised the PC was heading past MainStreet into Laggards and Decline was the next destination (to reference Geoffrey Moore)

The US AMD Live plan was to place the PC at the centre of home entertainment, a flawed strategy. The most unreliable compute service in the home would never take that position. The set-top box was already there and the Xbox, Wii and Playstation were strengthening their hold.

In Europe I changed the game to be one of enhancing the home entertainment. The PC in the home has your music, photographs and home video already so why not find a path to deliver it to the home entertainment systems around the home.

Simply, in order to give reason to home computers with a 4-core processor have the computer act as PC and Media Server.

The content is in data formats that are not compatible with all destinations, for instance HD MPEG-4 video can be sent to a DVB Set-top box as long as the ‘server’ converts it to MPEG-2. For the simplest view, one core is the home PC, another is sending video to the lounge, another to a bedroom and another your iTunes collection to the kitchen WiFi radio.

My point was at the time that the PC had to morph into the home media server, as it was likely a smartphone would grow to be a tablet and provide the screen and keyboard but the content needed to be somewhere. In todays palance this would be considered an ‘on premise private cloud’.

At the time I thought Microsoft were a visionary. They had lined up Windows Home Server for a early 2008 launch. This had such promise, a morph of the desktop PC into a remote, power managed, multi-core server that could deliver a remote desktop, full Office, music and video transcode and store home photographs in a RAID safe space. Soon after a service like SkyDrive would even support hosted back up, or what would come to be archive in the cloud. I was mistaken, Microsoft had no clue what they were doing, they continued to fumble, performed poorly in mobile, inconsistently in PC and left Home Server out to die.

Network Attach Storage from companies like Buffalo, Netgear, LG and others have tajen the home storage, all without data format transcoding. The rest of the world went smartphone and then tablet and then consumer cloud.

The consumer, the public sector and private sector are moving to smartphone then tablet with data stored in some sort of cloud service.

If the momentum continues then we will all be using LTE or fibre to access in the cloud our content from some form of thin client, whether its iOS, Droid or WP7.

From earlier posts on here you can read about my belief that WP7 is the leading phone in around 2 years from now. I think that will have Microsoft transform into a SaaS vendor with platform solutions for data centre servers.

As I mentioned to the AMD leadership team in 2007, the strategic focus has to be servers and smartphones, let the PC ‘die on the vine’. The FTTC ( fibre to the curb) and LTE (4G) will provide the digital path, the client will be a using a tablet to access their content on a server that is either off premise (market opportunity for consumer managed hosted services) or on premise (for those that like to know where it is, the content that is!).

Still in doubt, well I can say the only reason I am wrting this blog on my PC today is that the WordPress App on my Windows Mobile is unable to handle long blogs. The video and photographs I took yesterday of my son cantering were automatically uploaded from my phone to SkyDrive, my tablet has a SkyDrive access (and a Dropbox as it happens) is on my tablet and so I easily shared with the family on my return .. PC not required. If I have Office365 on my phone, Word, Excel, Powerpoint, Lync, SharePoint and OneNote with Exchange email from my phone, or tablet. I have Facebook, Twitter, various news feeds, my music all on my Windows phone … I have Skype on my Windows phone and my Tablet. If my 8Gbyte RAID NAS boxes were smarter and could run some of the Apps I use in a client/server model I would never need to  use my PC again … my Games are on Wii or Xbox and online, my BBC iPlayer is on Xbox … now try and convince me to spend $500 on a Windows based PC … or an Apple base PC … OK, my Klout is 52 so perhaps I am an early adopter, a geek to some.

Microsoft, you are indeed taking a Gambol with Windows 8, I would suggest you focus everything on Smartphones and Tablets and learn from your history, read my earlier blogs if you are unsure of your history. Its all about the Application, and I believe Office365 is the killer App for business and will therefore, as nobody wants to carry two devices, become the business and consumer standard just as the Windows OS became in the PC arena of yesteryear.

Windows Mobile is coming, and faster than you think

I have just read that Nokia is on the way back powered by Windows,

I could not agree more. I have had an iPhone, I have had an Samsung Galaxy Spica and now I have a Nokie Lumia 800.

As I mentioned in my past blog, those that forget the past are condemned to repeat it and we are all on the same trajectory as the WinTel provision we all know and love.

I think the killer App is Office365 and as a O365 user for my business I am truly impressed. Whether is Exchange email and its access from phone, tablet with no issue including the Calendar staying in sync, sharing Calendars and more. Whether its OneNote, or Excel, or Word, or PowerPoint. Whether its Sharepoint and the ability to collaborate with others, or whether its the automatic upload of any photo taken to the free 25Gbytes of Skydrive in the Cloud, its all killer.

I hear some say, well that is fine for the business user but what about the consumer, they will stay with Apple and Android. My daughter is a teenager and in her school the aspirational smartphone is the Blackberry. The reason, its BBM. OK, she has unlimited texting and unlimited internet and limited voice calls, but what she wants to to chat to groups at once. WhatsApp and Kik can do it, but BBM has it and its free and does not demand the internet. Its the consumer killer App on Blackberry, it also allows them to share music with each other, unlike iPhone.

The Blackberry started as an Outlook client, it was not even a phone. Now its a group chat device and a music sharing device and is reliable, dependable and the teenagers dream device.

Business people do not want to carry two phones, they are also consumers. The killer App of Office365 (Exchange, Word, Excel, PowerPoint, SharePoint, Lync, OneNote) for £4/month/seat coupled with 25Gbytes SkyDrive for free, Zune integration with music, xbox and video the Windows Mobile combination has real compelling reasons to buy.

Couple that with the bomb proof, Blackberry like, reliable,dependable quality of Nokia the value to the business community of a Windows Mobile phone is immense. Couple that with the most sociable phone I have used in that its tough to tell whether you are texting, messaging, twittering or facebook chatting and all your friends from all your email accounts, LinkedIn accounts and Facebook accounts showing in your People space … its seriously compelling as a consumer. Also, Nokia will keep the Koreans on the straight and narrow, there will be no tolerance for flaky, battery removal rebooting, the bar has been set.

Meanwhile Android is all over the place, its splitting like Linux, following the geek path of the PC world. RIM is lost, unless it opens up the OS for other hardware and Apple is staying in its pure white, Apple pure zone just as it did with the PC history.

Microsoft understand what made the PC a huge success, it was Lotus 123 on anyone’s hardware that was compatible with the Microsoft OS. This time the killer App is Office365 running on anyone’s hardware that is compatible with the Microsoft OS. History is repeating itself.

Now, Google is the only vendor that can change this. They have 12 months, they need to understand the history and put the pieces in place to ensure they provide a truly alternative business level solution that will encourage the business user to adopt Google Apps and Android. They will only carry one phone, if they pick Google then the consumer will take the same path, as business men are consumers.

I fear Google think its about search, and exciting geeky things. I fear Apple thinks its about entertainment and music. This leaves the path to the top wide open and undefended with Windows Mobile initially taking out RIM and then Android and then, well then we have only to wait for Intel to arrive in this space (and they are coming) and we are back with Wintel in the new era of the smartphone.

Why we will all be using Windows again

This week a friend of mine posted an article about the Android situation for developers. Develop for Android and it shows that we are all still on the path to repeat history. Sad news indeed.

Having been in the CPU side of the PC since the start and knowing what made the PC the huge success its history now repeating itself, as am I.

Google, wake up!!!!

If Google continue down this path they will have lots of platforms for a short while until a developers dream and a killer app appear. Those locked in their hardware are doomed to be trapped in thier fan base, as Apple have been in PC.

That is RIM and Apple believe they are able to sustain there market share with proprietary hardware, fools indeed.

Google have the superb idea of enabling a huge base of choice, but unlike the success of history and being led by geeks rather than marketing they have enabled a developers nightmare.

The application developers enable the success of the platform so make sure you make it easy for them.

I still think the killer app is Office365, I think Microsoft should consider making something free to boost adoption. The bigger picture being to attract the RIM user now and provide robust email and messenger. Kill off RIM as O365 is BES without the middle man.

Once Microsoft has the RIM customers and has multiple platforms with the same OS from Samsung, Nokia, HTC, Motorola and more then make a Developer program and accelerate the appeal to developers.

Then we have the same steady state in phones that we have in PC. Apple locked in thier own world, Linux with the geeks and Windows for the masses on commodity hardware with no margin other than for the CPU instruction set vendor and the OS vendor.

Of course, if we do not want this to happen then either Google has to engage a marketing strategy and step away from the Linux dream or Apple has to allow none Apple hardware to run IOS. .. forgetting the past will have us all live it again!

 

Vodafone to buy VISA or VISA to buy Vodafone?

Here is a thought, and an extension from something I saw demonstrated in 2008 but has not appeared in the market as yet.

  1. BMW have a proximity RFID like key that opens the car doors and enables you to start the engine, an ability that could easily be added to a mobile smartphone.
  2. Barclays Connect card has an RFID like ability that allows proximity payment to be made without Chip & PIN or swipe, an ability that could easily be added to a mobile smartphone
  3. Forward facing cameras are able to scan retinas, or finger prints and can also easily be added to a mobile smartphone
  4. Smartphone SIMs have an account associated with them that can be debited and credited just like a credit card account or a bank current account

So, here is the thought. The Mobile operator buys a bank. Then, using Virgin One like value added marketing, the operator encourages the subscriber to have their salary paid into their mobile phone account. The security can be PIN, Retina and finger print and the combination can enable payments.  From then on the mobile phone account is running like your Current account, perhaps providing free data and text and so many voice minutes.

The Chip & PIN machines in retail are replaced with either Bluetooth or RFID secure communication as the “Chip” is part of the SIM inside the phone. So the Chip & PIN mechanism is still present but its now contact-less and most likely more secure as the customers part is also active and connected.

The smartphone becomes the car keys, the wallet, the credit cards, the cash, the loyalty cards and possible the house keys. Losing the phone will demand the PIN, Retina and finger print to be valid so is very secure and, using the IMEI number a lost or stolen phone can be disabled by the bank/operator over the air in minutes.

The technology is here, its now. VISA is not just a clearing house for credit, its really just a case of who moves first. Will the banks buy the phone operators or the phone operators buy the banks. What is stopping one moving in on the other? … not technology, and I think the consumer would welcome the simplicity of a very familiar and very secure system.

 

Link

Bye bye BBM?

Daily Mail reports “Bye bye BBM? BlackBerry abandons consumer market after ANOTHER $125M loss – and retreats to focus on business
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2122489/BlackBerry-gives-Manufacturer-RIM-withdraw-consumer-market-focus-businesses.html#ixzz1qakCSdeB

As predicted, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it” .. November 2011

RIM should really read some of Geoffrey Moore’s books, or even one of then would do. Escape Velocity, where he talks about being trapped in the past and being unable to escape due to the pressures of the present.

The idea of Category Power, Company Power, Market Power, Offer Power and Execution Power and how to harness all three to escape from the past and survive in the constantly changing technology world.

RIM started as secure mobile Outlook client vendors in a handheld appliance. It soon became a phone as all those that have an appliance were also carrying a phone, and once a phone it became a camera, etc., etc.

However, the Offer Power was strong as no other had taken that step to build out a secure mobile infrastructure that could extend Microsoft Exchange, the corporate preference for email, into the hand of the user. A master stroke of genius. However, from there they lost it.

History shows (see early blog) that success is not proprietary in the main, its derived from competative pressure. The PC succes was based on a killer application called Lotus 123 and the Microsoft OS succes was due to the fact it removed the hardware dependancy from the platform and allowed the application to run on any machine that ran the OS. Hence why more Android is shipping than IOS at this time.

Now RIM took the Apple path, that of locked hardware. The offer, Exchange client on your mobile, had huge power. However, to succeed Geoffrey states you need all Powers in alignment. The advent of Apps on the phone and association with iTunes for your music has been a compelling offer and Apple knows “cool” so Market power pulled the consumer to iPhone. RIM responded with Apps on the Blackberry, not really understanding “cool”.

Eventually the business user simply ditched the Blackberry and battled with corporate IT to get the iPhone delivering Exchange email. When that happened RIM’s days were numbered. In fact, the owner of Exchange is Microsoft and while they were floundering around the place trying to work out how to convince WinXP users to move to Win7 the mobile world whizzed by …. however, they have never been one to ignore Apple.

So, Microsoft arrive with Windows Mobile 7 that includes Office, support for multiple Exchange accounts, and a raft of additional value. The unique offer of RIM is no longer unique, the owner of mobile Outlook has arrived. RIM at this point is in danger of not understanding the Offer Power, the Market Power and the Category Power and are in a flat spin scrabbling to recover.

The Blackberry Messenger becomes the passion of youth, they can sign up for very low cost mobile subscriptions and can text their friends constantly for no incremental charge, they do not even need an internet connection. Competition arrives in the form of  Kik and WhatsApp but that curve keyboard is a huge appeal to the fast texting teenager ..

Then RIM annouce they intend to refocus back to their roots and the business market, suggesting that BBM is about to become something in the past. That show such a lack of understanding of any of the Escape Velocity powers and will mean that RIM is heading the way of DEC, Compaq, Kodak, etc. and all we can do is thank them for helping to define a category and wish them well in whatever their executives decided to do next.

640K is enough for anyone

Just a very short post this time, but I just had too. Finally my Samsung Galaxy battery has taken a turn for the worse, holding its charge for a maximum of 15 minutes when in a call. Despite purchasing two new batteries from Amazon they state “battery disconnected” when I try to charge them, despite leaving them on charge all day. It would seem phone batteries are not stocked by the service provider and those on the internet, despite branding, are proving dysfunctional. The phone is a commodity.

Now my phone has 4 months to run, I call my provider (http://www.three.co.uk) and they say the best thing I can do is to purchase a second contract as they have family deals and then I can take my old one to a store to have it looked at. However, buying a new phone of the same sort on Amazon is less I inform them, and besides the deal is no different from that showing on their website. I decline. I guess Three are not keen on customer service and are hopeful for customer aquisitions to out run churn, best of luck with that one.

I client of mine offers to provide a HTC Desire as a temporary solution to this battery/upgrade challenge, and as its on the Three network all is cool. However, the Galaxy was Android 2.1 and the Desire is Android 2.2 and it would seem while the 2.1 email client (Email) can handle my 3x MS Exchange accounts the email client on 2.2 (Mail) cannot. I search the web and find an email client that claims it can support more than one Exchange account, I install it and hook up and while it shows it has the ability of more than one Exchange account in reality it refuses to connect to more than one. I can rotate around the 2 remaining ( I now have an App named Mail and another named Email) but I cannot get both to connect at the same time. I explore whether I can rename the App OMail and install it a second time, its a no.

So, I moved forward a version of Android and I moved backward in a level of capability. This truly is Linux all over again as per my earlier blogs on not remembering the past dooms you to repeat the mistakes of the past in the present.

So, I explore to determine when my phone will come up for renewal (Three call it upgrade) and which phone should I choose. I have already chosen to subscribe to Office 365 as I like the calendar integration with email that Exchange provides and do not want to host Exchange myself. The determine the resellers sell it for more than Microsoft so I purchased direct and in my research I find that Windows Mobile 7 has Office and can support Office 365 and also has the ability to handle multiple Exchange accounts, in fact a Microsoft CTO shows me the wow! of it in action.

Then I cannot believe it, just as the myth states in the 1980’s that Bill gates said “640K is enough for anyone” the Windows Mobile Phone base level design, which is adopted by the ODMs and then made to look special by the OEMs, has ommited the SDCard slot found in just about every other phone. The statement of 2012 is therefore “16G is enough for anyone” … well, my 32G SDCard in my HTC Desire has 18G of stuff on it and as far as I am aware there is no himem.sys available to help as there was in the PC history.

Of course, I get the business model, they want you to use SkyDrive and in the usual way of Microsoft the best way to cause the customer to comply is to ensure they have no choice and have to follow the herd. However, I suppose 25G in the Sky is interesting for data assuming you are connected. My 18G is music, personal pictures and a number of Apps of which I use many of them, including UPM which I was hopeful would be available too, its not. It would seem I am expected to drop my music and Apps to a less than 16G level, it would seem Microsoft have to leave us something to complain about as always.

 

Android is so Linux, Apple so Apple, RIM so trying to be Apple, Windows so Windows … pity really.

So, this week is the week of the a salt and battery. The salt, as no matter where I ended up Pizza seemed to be the food of choice, and battery as every battery I approached seemed to fail just at the point I needed it most.

For nearly 2 years I have been running with Android 2.1, same phone, second battery. Heading back from a client I needed to make an urgent call, so I hooked it up with my Jabra via bluetooth and headed out. Just about to make that call and the screen striped … never been seen before, it just striped like a graphics card failure in a Windows PC.

Plugging in the charger had it doing something, but it would not turn on. Some 40 miles later it turned on, found its operator connection and then died. So, I ordered a new battery and limped along plugging in when I could. The new, branded same as phone, battery arrived, and on plugging it into the phone the phone reported “battery disconnected” … no amount of persuasion would change its mind. The supplier said “oh, sometimes we get that even with branded batteries and has sent another. I suspect the charging circuit in the phone is dead, I’ll have to wait and see. No idea what iPhone users do at this point, send it away for a battery change I suppose?!

Hearing my struggle the founder of TARCA (www.tarca.co.uk) mentioned he had a spare Android phone on the same network that he would wipe and I could borrow. Great news.

I moved the SIM and the 16Gbyte SDCard over to the replacement phone, selected all the options, logged in with my gmail account and “boom” my phone was back. The Apps I had bought at the Market were showing, waiting to download, the updates for the locked in Apps were also waiting and all I had to find were the Apps I obtained for free as it did not recall those. The Gmail sync’d contacts, calendar and email and all my contacts were in the phone. Could this get any better I thought. The new phone was Droid 2.2.2 so everything should be wonderful as I had been 2.1

However, now my point. This Droid story is following the Linux story nearly to a tee, a huge pity as it will never be taken seriously while its stuck in geekdom. I hope you follow the next part, as its so typical of Linux.

The Linux world has had no standard, every instance is a new instance. Moving from one to the other is an awful experience, as nothing, other than the very basics, is the same. As it is with my move to 2.2.2

I have 3 Microsoft Exchange email accounts and 6 POP accounts, as IMAP does not keep its promises and is seriously painful to use in anger. My Droid 2.1 email App that came with the OS supported the 3 Exchange and 2 POP use for business and I used the Yahoo email App for the other 4 POP accounts. That way when I opened either App I could see all the email accounts that App supported.

However, the email App that comes with 2.2.2 on the phone I have as a stop-gap can only support one Exchange account. Reading the internet it would seem Droid 2.2.2 is better than 2.2 in that the email App can support multiple Exchange accounts. However, the vendor of the phone I have decided to keep the 2.2 email App … and so we have the Linux world all over again.

Searching the web, as you would with Linux, I find on the internet the current version, http://forum.xda-developers.com/showthread.php?p=9693816#post9693816 runs through a long, complex discussion and the last entry has an attachment whose QR code gets you to the download of the 2.2 email App.

Now, for some reason, while this App lets me try and configure more than one Exchange account its only letting one through to completion, despite copying line for line, entry for entry from the old phone, which I can still use if I keep it plugged into power.

So, I have a phone that has the later OS running on it, yet it has an older email App and if I run to the geekdom I can get the latest App that does not quite do the same as the one before. That is at least THREE versions of the same thing in my possession and I only have TWO phones. This is all the bad things of Linux and none of the good.

Meanwhile RIM are running out of road, locked into proprietary hardware trying to sell mobile Outlook clients with free text (BBM) when my operator is offering me 5000 texts, 2000 minutes and all you can take internet on  Windows Mobile 7 platform that has an email client that truly is mobile Outlook and can accommodate multiple Exchange accounts and multiple POP accounts and can merge calendars with colours so you can see your complete set of calendars on a single view ….

Come on Google, get a grip. Get behind the professionalism, the business mentality, let the engineers do their thing but do not let them run the company. Microsoft is about to accelerate past the whole lot and leave you wondering what happened … and lets not go there again, we’ve had this with the PC’s for the last million years!

 

Windows Mobile is coming at speed, you may laugh …

As I wrote in November, the time from the Apple PC to the IBM PC was around 5 years and while the excitment at the time was around the large mainframe vendor providing a PC the management of IBM did not take it seriously. However it changed the world.

The reason, the Application, something that has most recently, in an attempt to make it a TLA has become the App – seems we all have to preserve the air and using full words is wasteful.

The killer App for the MSDOS platform, to use the like terminology being used in Smartphone space, was Lotus 1-2-3. The Apple II (1977) along with the Tandy, the Atari in 1978 and IBM in 1981. The adoption of the PC architecture by Northern Telecom, ICL, Compaq (1983), Dell (1986), AST Research, Epson, HP, NEC, Olivetti, WYSE, Zenith Data Systems … werr all about running the killer App of Lotus 1-2-3.

The Guardian reports that Android is leading in its article this weekand it shows Windows as almost none existant. Yet, the perceived wisdom of the street is that Apple is the leading phone and the one everyone is talking about, so how can Android be in the lead right now?

Taking history, the other aspect that made MSDOS the main platform was that it appeared on so many hardware offerings and enabled the killer App to run without issue. In fact the famous “Gang of Nine” pushed to get a hardware defined standard for add-on products, leading eventually to things like USB, Bluetooth and 802.11 (WiFi).

Everyone that ever used MSDOS will have cursed the memory issues, the painful interface, the amount of geek you had to be to keep it alive and the fragile nature of floppy disks. Apple, Commodore, Amiga had seriously better user interfaces, far more friendly but they did not have that killer App. Microsoft eventually bowed to pressure and delivered Windows, and it was a horrid example, in fact it was not until Windows 3.11 that it became useful.

In fact Microsoft are known to make things hated by the customer base. Things like Windows 1.0, Windows 95, Windows ME, Windows Vista and yet they also manage to correct the mistake and cause a massive market acceptance with things like Windows 3.11, Windows 98, Windows NT, Windows XP, Windows 7 and yet the customer base tolerates the bad and cheers about the good. Yet, all the way through its the killer App that leads the charge. It was Word Perfect, DBase, Supercalc, AutoCAD but soon became Word, Access, Excel, Powerpoint and now is Office 2010 with Sharepoint, Exchange and most recently Lync.

So, why Android ahead, I would suggest because it has part 1 of the equation, that is its multiplatformed. There are so many choices for Android phones from so many vendors, while Apple and RIM are only available from Apple and RIM. The strength of the IBM PC was MSDOS and the compatible hardware of the clones to run MSDOS so the killer App worked across the board.

I have been using Office 365 with Online Exchange, Online Sharepoint and it is enabling me to edit files on my PC, my Tablet, my Phone, my friends iPAD, my friends PC, a PC at a client and its combining Office WebApps anywhere with Dropbox with Exchange email. That is indeed a killer App, and it runs on any platform.

Now, Windows Mobile runs on any platform, alongside Android, so perhaps if that was on the only factor then its likely by the end of 2014 the market share will look like Android 40%, Windows 40%, Apple 20%, RIM 0%, Symbian 0%. However with the killer App and the association of Microsoft with Microsoft infrastucture I would suggest its more likely to be Android 30%, Windows 50%, Apple 20%, RIM 0%, Symbian 0%.

So, my suggestion is that Windows Mobile is coming at speed, they are late, but then Apple to IBM was 5 years so the game is by no means over and they understand what they need to do and they are doing it. The latest Windows Mobile phones are single core cpu and running better than iPhone, beating them at tests, for example ITPro Head to Head
They have the multi-platform, they have the performance, they have the killer App and they are late, but I predict they have learnt from the past and they will be ahead of the pack in the very near future. This week coming, in Barcelona, will be very, very interesting.

Dave @ Elementum Evelor Ltd